Falling Consumer Confidence May be Signaling Stock Market Drop and a Recession

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Falling Consumer Confidence May be Signaling Stock Market Drop and a Recession.  Almost six months ago consumer confidence in the U.S. economy was just about as high as it gets. Then consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board  dropped amid a big stock market correction and worrisome economic news before rebounding earlier in 2019….

Stock Market Sentiment Indicates Investors Should be Cautious

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Stock Market Sentiment Indicates Investors Should be Cautious.  We use investor sentiment on the market direction as contrarian indicators since investors usually are wrong. The indicators this past week and in recent weeks show sentiment remains complacent. This tells us that investors should be cautious. The CNN/Fear Greed short-term sentiment indicator is at 62, which…

Why Stock Market Could Be Turbulent During Present Earnings Blackout Period

ByBrad Lamensdorf

The Stock Market Could Be Turbulent During Present Earnings Blackout Period. As the chart below illustrates, a great many public companies are entering blackout periods before regular quarterly results announcements. The blackout periods prevent companies and insiders from buying or selling their own stock based on inside information about earnings results not available to everyone…

Stock Market Sentiment Indicates Investors Should Remain Cautious

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Stock Market Sentiment Indicates Investors Should Remain Cautious.  We view investor sentiment on the direction of the market as contrarian indicators since investors usually are wrong. The Indicators are basically unchanged over the last couple of weeks, continuing to indicate that stock market investors should remain cautious. The CNN Fear/Greed short-term indicator at 65 is…

 The Growth of “Covenant Lite Loans” and Potential Big Risk to the Stock and Bond Markets and the Economy

ByBrad Lamensdorf

The Growth of “Covenant Lite Loans” and Potential Big Risk to the Stock and Bond Markets and the Economy. “This will end poorly,” says Anton Pill, managing partner at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.  What he was referring to is the tremendous growth  (see charts below) of highly risky so-called “covenant lite loans,” which carry hefty…