Sentiment Indicators Turning Negative as Investor Optimism Grows

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Sentiment Indicators Turning Negative as Investor Optimism Grows.  We use investor sentiment as contrarian indicators on market direction since investors are usually wrong. During the past week the indicators were showing increasing investor optimism for the near term and the intermediate term. And that’s a warning signal for smart investors to watch out. Short term…

IMF Cut in Global Growth Rate is Another Warning for Stock Market

ByBrad Lamensdorf

IMF Cut in Global Growth Rate is Another Warning for Stock Market.  The International Monetary Fund just cut its projection for 2019’s global growth to 3.3 percent.  Its January forecast was 3.5 percent. That would be the lowest growth rate since the financial crisis in 2009 when the global economy shrank (see chart below).  The…

Investor Stock Market Sentiment Indicators Flashing Warning Signs

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Investor Stock Market Sentiment Indicators Flashing Warning Signs.  We use investor sentiment indicators as contrarian indicators on stock market direction because investors are historically wrong. The CNN Fear & Greed Index has moved up to 70, showing short-term sentiment has gotten bullish, a negative sign for the stock market.  Meanwhile, the VIX volatility Index is…

Large IPOs and Record IPO Calendars Can be Warning Signs of Rough Times Ahead for Stock Market

ByBrad Lamensdorf

IPO Calendars Can be Warning Signs of Rough Times Ahead for Stock Market.  Large IPOs typically occur during times when stocks are fashionable to own.   Large IPO’s with large one day pops are synonymous with a high-risk stock market environment fueled by overly optimistic investors. The chart below from www.sentimentrader.com shows big market drops after…

Intermediate-Term Stock Market Sentiment Indicators Flashing Warning Signals

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Intermediate-Term Stock Market Sentiment Indicators Flashing Warning Signals.  We use sentiment Indicators as important guidance on stock market direction. Intermediate-term indicators are telling us to take defensive positions. The Investors Intelligence Bulls/Bears poll of newsletter writers indicates bullish sentiment greatly outnumbers bearish sentiment with a positive spread of +32. That’s a clear warning sign because…