Sentiment Indicators Warning Stock Market Investors to be Very Defensive

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Sentiment Indicators Warning Stock Market Investors to be Very Defensive.  We use investor sentiment on the stock market as contrarian indicators, and they are beginning to ring alarm bells.  Take, for instance, the Investor Intelligence Bulls/Bears poll of more than 100 market newsletter writers.  The percentage of bulls during the past week went up to…

New York Federal Reserve Model Indicating Recession Next Year

ByBrad Lamensdorf

The New York Federal Reserve indicating recession next year.  That is based on a model it created using the spread between yields on 10-year and 3-month Treasuries to forecast economic conditions one year ahead. The latest model shows a 33% probability of recession next year. That is very worrisome because, as the chart shows, this…

Crestmont P/E is Warning Stock Market May Be Dangerously High

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Crestmont P/E is Warning Stock Market May Be Dangerously High.  Crestmont Research’s Crestmont P/E gives us a better picture of price earnings. This helps evaluate the stock market. As you can see in the chart in blue below, its present valuation at 32.1 is just slightly below the P/E. This happened at about the time…

Stock Market Sentiment Indicators Suggest Investors Should be Cautious

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Stock Market Sentiment Indicators Suggest Investors Should be Cautious.  We use investor sentiment as contrarian indicators on stock market direction. The latest sentiment indicators were moving toward overbought territory. This suggests investors should be cautious. For instance, the Investors Intelligence Bulls/Bears poll of stock market newsletter writers reported bullish sentiment was becoming more optimistic. This…

Record Amount of Negative-Yielding Debt Signaling Expansion of Global Slowdown

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Record Amount of Negative-Yielding Debt Signaling Global Slowdown. The market value of negative yielding debt globally hit a record $12.5 trillion this past week. This was spurred by investor anxiety over clear signs of a weakening global economy.  This is indicative by persistently low inflation, China-US trade tensions and geopolitics, particularly in the Middle East….