Investor Sentiment Indicates Increased Stock Market Risk

ByBrad Lamensdorf

We use investor sentiment as a contrarian indicator, and those indicators are signaling increased stock market risk. For instance, the Investor Intelligence Bulls/Bears poll of stock market newsletter writer sentiment shows bullish sentiment moved up to 57.2% from 54.2% a week ago, which calls for defensive measures. A number above 55% means elevated risk. Bearish…

Major Indicators Show Global Economy is Weakening.

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Major Indicators Show Global Economy is Weakening. A growing number of countries are experiencing slowdowns in manufacturing. According to the Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI), a survey of prevailing economic marketing trends that is a major tool for corporate decision makers. The chart below shows tremendous growth in the number of countries with a PMI below…

Investor Sentiment Indicators Continue Flashing Warning Signs

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Investor Sentiment Indicators Continue Flashing Warning Signs.  We use investor sentiment as contrarian indicators on stock market direction, and they continue to indicate investors should remain defensive.  For instance, bullish sentiment among the more than 100 newsletter writers in the Investors Intelligence Bulls/Bears poll was 54.2%,  That’s better than the three prior weeks when sentiment…

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Sharp Fall in German Manufacturing is Another Sign of Global Economic Slowdown.  German Manufacturing output in July was the worst in seven years.  As measured by the German Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), a survey of prevailing economic marketing trends that is a major planning tool for corporate decision makers. It fell to 43.1 in July …

Investor Sentiment Indicators Advise Greater Caution

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Investor Sentiment Indicators Advise Greater Caution.  We use sentiment as contrarian indicators on stock market direction.  Bullish sentiment was up among the more than 100 newsletters polled by Investors Intelligence. It reached a lofty 58% compared to 56.7% the week before. That is the third straight week this indicator has been in the danger zone…