Near-Record Proportion of IPOs Losing Money Is Sign of Trouble for Stock Market

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Near-Record Proportion of IPOs Losing Money Is Sign of Trouble for Stock Market. As the chart below shows the proportion of Initial Public Offerings going public with losses remains close to a record high (see chart) of around 70% vs. less than 40% in normal times. As as result, that historically is a clear danger sign…

Biggest Cap Stocks in S&P 500 are Behind its Superior Market Performance: Watch Out!

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Biggest Cap Stocks in S&P 500 are Behind its Superior Market Performance: Watch Out!  As the chart below shows, more than 18% of the market cap of the S&P 500 is represented by only five stocks. That’s an historic high.  And since those stocks, mainly in the technology sector (Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN)…

Warren Buffett’s Favorite Indicator,  Market Cap to GDP, Signals Stock Market is Way Overbought

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Warren Buffett’s Favorite Indicator,  Market Cap to GDP, Signals Stock Market is Way Overbought.  Stock guru Warren Buffett is holding more than $128 billion in cash. That’s about 23% of the value of Berkshire Hathaway  A class stock, and about 60% of its portfolio of public companies.   This huge cash position  should be taken as…

Extremely Bullish Investor Sentiment on Stock Market Flashes Danger Signals

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Extremely Bullish Investor Sentiment on Stock Market Flashes Danger Signals. We use investor sentiment as a contrarian indicator for stock market direction, and here’s why we are concerned.  The Investor Intelligence poll of more than 100 newsletter writers reports bullish sentiment climbed this week to 58.9% from the previous 57.7%. That’s the highest level of…