Stock Market Sentiment Remains Complacent

By Brad Lamensdorf

The pros are back at it again.

The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Exposure Index is fully loaded into stocks.

Stock Market Sentiment Remains ComplacentStock Market Sentiment Remains ComplacentThe NAAIM is quick to point out on their own website that their own survey of members has little predictive value.

That begs the question, why take the survey in the first place?

There is one thing that is predictive.

Human nature.

Collectively, we make huge boneheaded errors. Look at that chart above, and the NAAIM index was at very low levels just before a huge run in the markets. 

That was when the best high reward / low risk trade was on the table. In fact, the best trade in years.

As usual, they were late to the game.

Now they have placed their bets and all of their marbles are on the table. This comes at a time when newsletters are too bullish, valuations are stretched, and speculators have taken levered lottery ticket bets in the options markets for the privilege of losing their money.

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