When US Financial Conditions Collapse the Stock, Market Is Sure to Follow

ByBrad Lamensdorf

When US Financial Conditions Collapse the Stock, Market Is Sure to Follow. As you can see from the chart below that goes back 30 years, when US financial conditions go down, the stock market inevitably follows. The chart, which was produced before the end-of-the-week downturn, is among many historically accurate indicators we’ve been using that have told us a big…

Higher and Higher Levels of Bullish Stock Market Sentiment are Getting Downright Scary

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Higher and Higher Levels of Bullish Stock Market Sentiment are Getting Downright Scary. We use investor sentiment gauges as historically accurate contrarian indicators  of  the direction of the stock market. So, what’s raising red flags for us is this week’s poll of more than 100 newsletter writers from SentimenTrader. FYI, SentimenTrader supplies the research to determine…

Low S&P 500 Short Interest is Another Sign Stock Investors Are Overly Complacent

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Low S&P 500 Short Interest is Another Sign Stock Investors Are Overly Complacent. As you can see from the chart below, median short interest on the S&P 500 as a percentage of market cap is the lowest in years.  And that  means hedging against a downturn by shorting also is at its lowest in years….

Why Our Active Alts SentimenTrader Long/Short Portfolio has Raised  Cash

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Why Our Active Alts SentimenTrader Long/Short Portfolio has Raised  Cash.  Many of the tools that we display weekly are actually used in our money management business, www.ActiveAlts.com .  We use sentiment gauges of all kinds to help determine risk/reward.  Active Alts and SentimenTrader have created an unleveraged long/short strategy called Active Alts SentimenTrader L/S Strategy….

Stock Market Investment Advisors are Betting The Store With Client Money: Watch Out!

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Stock Market Investment Advisors are Betting The Store With Client Money: Watch Out!  We use a number of investor sentiment gauges as contrarian indicators for guidance on where the stock market may be headed. That’s because most investors, including the so-called  professionals, historically are wrong.  One of the indicators we use is the NAAIM Exposure…