Sentiment Updates

Short-term investor sentiment has turned bullish.  The CNN Fear/Greed at 13means investors are very fearful. The Ned Davis Research short-term gauge is at 13. Both are very bullish signals from a contrarian point of view because investors are historically wrong about market direction. Meanwhile, intermediate term sentiment also is looking more bullish. The NDR crowd…

We use investment sentiment as contrarian indicators because historically investors tend to be terrible at market timing, buying nearer tops and selling nearer bottoms.  So for practically all of 2018 as the markets cascaded down, investors remained unduly optimistic.  Now they are finally showing signs of fear, which could be part of a bottoming process….

The most recent short-term sentiment gauges are indicating investors have turned very fearful about market conditions, with the CNN Fear/Greed index at 7 and the Ned Davis Research short-term indicator at 15. From a contrarian point of view this is very bullish for equity markets over the next four to six weeks since historically investors…

Short-term sentiment last week appeared to indicate that the market was oversold from a contrarian point of view. The CNN Fear/Greed index at 10, which is very low, and the Ned Davis Research sentiment gauge at 26 were both on the oversold side of the ledger. Meanwhile the intermediate-term sentiment gauges were more elevated than…

Short-term sentiment indicators were of little use earlier this week in signaling market direction, while intermediate-term indicators were signaling the markets were headed lower. On the short-term side, the CNN Fear/Greed moved to 18, meaning investors were somewhat fearful, which is bullish from a contrarian point of view. However the Ned Davis Research short-term gauge…